Shaping photovoltaic array output to align with changing wholesale electricity price profiles

Abstract

Large-scale deployment of solar photovoltaics (PV) contributes to the occurrence of depressed—and sometimes negative—electricity prices during daylight hours as PV displaces higher-cost generators in the merit-order dispatch stack. These changes in electricity price provide an opportunity to increase the wholesale energy revenue of PV generators through temporal shaping of PV output. Here, we explore the impact of three output-shaping strategies on PV wholesale energy revenue and capacity factor: utilization of 1-axis tracking, curtailment during negative-price hours, and modification of fixed-tilt array orientation. Utility-scale PV arrays are modeled at more than 10,000 pricing nodes across six United States electricity markets over the 2010–2017 time period. Large changes in revenue-optimized output profiles are observed for the California system, where solar capacity penetration has increased from ∼2% of peak load in 2010 to ∼28% of peak load in 2017, and the wholesale revenue benefits of temporal output shaping are increasing with time. On the California real-time market in 2017, compared to capacity-factor-optimized fixed-tilt arrays with must-run operation, curtailment increases revenues by 9%, curtailment in conjunction with fixed-tilt orientation optimization increases revenues by 20%, 1-axis tracking without curtailment increases revenues by 32%, and 1-axis tracking with curtailment increases revenues by 42% for the median node. Median optimal fixed-tilt azimuths for PV on the real-time market in California have increased from 192° in 2010 to 235° (i.e. 55° west of south) in 2017. Among the markets and years studied, the California market in 2017 demonstrates the largest potential benefit from temporal output shaping. These results highlight mechanisms for mitigating some of the decline in PV wholesale value at high solar penetrations, and illustrate the importance of adapting PV installation and dispatch strategies to changing power system conditions.