Abstract

This paper reviews the possible evolution of different types of commercial long-haul transport airplanes. Emphasis is on the shape of the airplane configuration as influenced by design requirements and performance goals. The point of view is taken that a radical departure in airplane shape will take place only if it is associated with a radical new benefit or with new, vastly superior capability. Airplane configurations are discussed that are considered technically feasible within a practical level of near-term technology. Supersonic and transonic aircraft are considered, as well as different types of subsonic transports. It is indicated that superior second-generation supersonic transports are quite feasible technically; in particular, it is shown that problems of fuel consumption, efficient overland flight, and questions on noise and nitric oxides have straightforward engineering solutions. Transonic airplanes are feasible but would have a different geometry than subsonic aircraft to provide the versatility necessary to compete at one end of their capability with supersonic transports and at the other end, for shorter ranges, with subsonic transports. The shape of subsonic transports is not expected to change noticeably, although recent advances of airfoil technology imply that new subsonic transports would have wings with higher aspect ratios and somewhat less sweep. On the other hand, a number of specialized subsonic airplanes are possible with shapes different from those flying today; these include large specialized freighter aircraft and very long range (or long endurance) laminar flow control or nuclear powered aircraft.

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