Shanghai oil futures prices and firms' investment decisions: Evidence from Chinese manufacturing firms

Abstract

International crude oil futures prices play a key role in market pricing, price discovery, and reshaping the market order. As the world's largest importer of crude oil, China urgently needs to establish contracts based on Asian supply and demand to mitigate currency risk for refiners and consumers. Against the backdrop of the launch of yuan-denominated crude oil futures by the Shanghai International Energy Exchange (INE) on March 26, 2018, this paper examines the impact of crude oil futures prices on the investment scale of Chinese manufacturing companies based on data from listed manufacturing companies in China from 2016Q1 to 2021Q3. The study finds that increases in international crude oil futures prices suppress the investment scale of Chinese manufacturing enterprises, while price volatility has a promoting effect. The listing of Shanghai crude oil futures has a negative shock effect on the impact of international crude oil futures prices on the investment scale of Chinese manufacturing enterprises. Additionally, increases in operational leverage amplify the negative impact of international crude oil futures prices on the investment scale of enterprises and weaken the positive impact of changes in international crude oil futures prices on the investment scale. Furthermore, among large manufacturing enterprises, volatility and increases in international crude oil futures prices suppress their investment scale; whereas in small and micro manufacturing enterprises, price increases and volatility significantly boost their investment scale. This paper provides empirical evidence and policy implications for fully leveraging Shanghai crude oil futures to optimize corporate investment decisions and support the sustainable development of enterprises.