Abstract

We investigate the pre-Chinese Lunar New Year (CLNY) return performance of the top 30 stocks of each of the Shanghai and Hong Kong stock markets from 2010 to 2016. With specific regard for the cultural context of the CLNY period, our novel contribution is to identify the separate pre-CLNY return performance of auspicious prior winner stocks and prior loser “ghost” stocks. On the Shanghai stock market during the four week lead-up to CLNY, we find that abnormal stock return performance is positively related to the prior three month outperformance of winner stocks but unrelated to the prior underperformance of loser stocks: this result is consistent with festive positive affect (optimism) combined with a superstition effect that doubly drives positive momentum for auspicious prior winners only. Split analysis of prior winners and losers suggests that prior loser stocks are buoyed by festive positive affect. No such relationships are found for the Hong Kong stock market.

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