Abstract
We argue that the most prominent temporal features of the solar dynamo, in particular the Hale cycle, the Suess–de Vries cycle (associated with variations of the Gnevyshev–Ohl rule), Gleissberg-type cycles, and grand minima can all be explained by combined synchronization with the 11.07-year periodic tidal forcing of the Venus–Earth–Jupiter system and the (mainly) 19.86-year periodic motion of the Sun around the barycenter of the solar system. We present model simulations where grand minima, and clusters thereof, emerge as intermittent and non-periodic events on millennial time scales, very similar to the series of Bond events which were observed throughout the Holocene and the last glacial period. If confirmed, such an intermittent transition to chaos would prevent any long-term prediction of solar activity, notwithstanding the fact that the shorter-term Hale and Suess–de Vries cycles are clocked by planetary motion.
Highlights
Thanks to the seminal work of Gerard Bond and his collaborators, we have overwhelming evidence that a significant component of sub-Milankovich climate variability occurs in certain 1–3 kyr “cycles” of abrupt changes of the North Atlantic’s surface hydrography (Bond et al, 1997, 1999), and that those Bond events are closely related to corresponding variations in solar output, evidenced by measurements of the cosmogenic radionuclides 14C and 10Be (Bond et al, 2001)
Without discussing some chronological intricacies of Bond events (Obrochta et al, 2012) or the possible mechanisms behind their solar forcing (Adolphi et al, 2014), in Figure 1(a) we just plot the data of time separations between the 54 Bond events as identified over the last 80 kyr, which we have drawn from Figure 6(c) of Bond et al (1999)
We recapitulated the basic idea that the 22.14-year Hale cycle is synchronized by the 11.07-year tidal (m = 2) forcing period of the tidally dominant VEJ-system, the importance of which had been pointed out earlier (Hung, 2007; Scafetta, 2012; Wilson, 2013; Okhlopkov, 2014, 2016)
Summary
Thanks to the seminal work of Gerard Bond and his collaborators, we have overwhelming evidence that a significant component of sub-Milankovich climate variability occurs in certain 1–3 kyr “cycles” of abrupt changes of the North Atlantic’s surface hydrography (Bond et al, 1997, 1999), and that those Bond events are closely related to corresponding variations in solar output, evidenced by measurements of the cosmogenic radionuclides 14C and 10Be (Bond et al, 2001). While originally identified for the Holocene (Bond et al, 1997) from certain ice drift proxies (in particular volcanic glass from Iceland and hematite-stained grains from East Greenland, found in deep-see sediments), many similar events were later revealed by Bond et al (1999) in the last glacial period, too. Viewed from this angle, the little ice age, comprising in particular the Spörer and Maunder grand minima, appears just as the latest link in the chain of Bond events, and the temperature increase since the end of the Dalton minimum as a rebound from those frosty times
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