Shadow economy and economic development: a panel cointegration and causality analysis

Abstract

The main objective of the research is to study the link between the indicators of GDP and shadow economy. In the article the forms of impact of the shadow economy have been analysed. Its main social, political and economic implications have been determined. The analysis results of the indicators of the average GDP growth rates in EU member states in 1960-2016, showed that the current level of economic growth in Ukraine is much lower compared to other countries. Based on the analysis of static indicators of the social and economic stability (standard deviation, coefficient of variation, maximum and minimum value), direct and feedback links between the levels of economy shadowing and GDP have been demonstrated. In this case, the results of Granger test confirm specific hypotheses and determine the vectors of their interaction at different time horizons.