Abstract

BackgroundSurveillance data on sexually transmitted infections (STIs) and behavioral characteristics identified in studies of the risk of seroconversion are often used as to track sexual behaviors that spread HIV. However, such analyses can be confounded by “seroadaptation”—the restriction of unprotected anal intercourse (UAI), especially unprotected insertive UAI, to seroconcordant partnerships.MethodsWe utilized sexual network methodology and repeated-measures statistics to test the hypothesis that seroadaptive strategies reduce the risk of HIV transmission despite numerous partnerships and frequent UAI.Principal FindingsIn a prospective cohort study of HIV superinfection including 168 HIV-positive men who have sex with men (MSM), we found extensive seroadaptation. UAI was 15.5 times more likely to occur with a positive partner than a negative one (95% confidence interval [CI], 9.1–26.4). Receptive UAI was 4.3 times more likely in seroconcordant partnerships than with negative partners (95% CI, 2.8–6.6), but insertive UAI was 13.6 times more likely with positives (95% CI, 7.2–25.6). Our estimates suggest that seroadaptation reduced HIV transmissions by 98%.ConclusionPotentially effective HIV prevention strategies, such as seroadaptation, have evolved in communities of MSM before they have been recognized in research or discussed in the public health forum. Thus, to be informative, studies of HIV risk must be designed to assess seroadaptive behaviors rather than be limited to individual characteristics, unprotected intercourse, and numbers of partners. STI surveillance is not an effective indicator of trends in HIV incidence where there are strong patterns of seroadaptation.

Highlights

  • Surveillance data on sexually transmitted infections (STIs) and results from behavioral studies of the risk of seroconversion have frequently been used as surrogate markers of trends in sexual behaviors that spread new HIV infections and signal changing trends in the HIV epidemic

  • Potentially effective HIV prevention strategies, such as seroadaptation, have evolved in communities of men who have sex with men (MSM) before they have been recognized in research or discussed in the public health forum

  • We tested the hypothesis that HIV-positive MSM reduced the risk of infecting partners both by serosorting and by strategic positioning—the restriction of unprotected anal intercourse (UAI), especially unprotected insertive UAI, mainly to seroconcordant partnerships

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Summary

Introduction

Surveillance data on sexually transmitted infections (STIs) and results from behavioral studies of the risk of seroconversion have frequently been used as surrogate markers of trends in sexual behaviors that spread new HIV infections and signal changing trends in the HIV epidemic. The concomitant decreases in the incidence of rectal gonorrhea, rates of high-risk sexual practices, and HIV incidence in the 1980s in San Francisco suggested that the former two measures were good surrogate indicators of potential trends in HIV incidence. Surveillance data on sexually transmitted infections (STIs) and behavioral characteristics identified in studies of the risk of seroconversion are often used as to track sexual behaviors that spread HIV. Such analyses can be confounded by ‘‘seroadaptation’’—the restriction of unprotected anal intercourse (UAI), especially unprotected insertive UAI, to seroconcordant partnerships

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