Abstract
Candidate characteristics have an important impact on voter choice, and scandals are found to negatively impact a political campaign. Yet the literature, with its focus on scandals such as financial and (consensual) affairs, has failed to look into how allegations of sexual assault and harassment may impact electability. This study analyzes the effect that allegations of sexual assault or harassment have on the electoral success of American politicians. Using an original survey experiment, we find that, on average, American citizens are less likely to support a candidate accused of sexual assault or sexual harassment. However, not all voters do so to the same magnitude. We find that Democrats are significantly less likely to support a candidate that faces such allegations. Republicans do not strongly penalize candidates facing allegations of sexual assault or harassment, especially if the candidate is identified as a Republican. We analyze open-ended survey responses to offer an explanation for such variation: a propensity to disbelieve women who speak out about sexual assault and harassment explains variations in why some voters may not change their opinion of a candidate based on an allegation.
Highlights
In the last few years, many women in the United States have been coming out with stories about sexual assault and sexual harassment (SASH) within powerful institutions (Maas et al, 2018)
Contrary to what H2a and H2b suggests, the effects of sex and age in the intention to vote for the candidate are not significant. These results indicate that demographics prone to rape myth acceptance, are not forgiving of candidates accused of SASH and are as willing to penalize them in the ballot box as women and younger people do
The variation comes from their partisanship, since voters that share a candidate’s party affiliation are still willing to support the candidate accused of SASH
Summary
In the last few years, many women in the United States have been coming out with stories about sexual assault and sexual harassment (SASH) within powerful institutions (Maas et al, 2018) While these allegations have been serious, the fate of the careers of those. The 2016 reveal of the Access Hollywood tape wherein Donald Trump acknowledged having sexually predatory behavior inspired a stream of women to come out with stories corroborating his sexually aggressive tendencies (Kurtzleben, 2016). This series of events inflamed national discourse about women’s bodily autonomy and perceptions of allegations of SASH in American culture. Trump’s political ambitions were not squandered by the negative news, as he was elected president, yet the allegations continue to prompt regular discourse in the media regarding his moral character (Dickinson, 2018)
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