Sex-specific prediction value of common carotid artery diameter for stroke risk in a hypertensive population: a cross-sectional study.

Abstract

The importance of sex as a risk factor for stroke has been established. This study aimed to assess sex-related disparities in carotid artery diameter and stroke in a hypertensive population. The cross-sectional survey was conducted in rural areas of northeast China. A multistage cluster sampling method was employed to select a representative population. The study comprised 3,245 individuals with hypertension. The common carotid artery (CCA) interadventitial diameter was measured by ultrasound. A linear model of restricted cubic spline function was used to characterize the concentration-response (C-R) relationship between CCA diameter and stroke. The overall prevalence of stroke was 8.9% among hypertensive individuals, with a higher rate in men than in women (10.8% vs. 7.6%). When the women's CCA diameters were divided into quartiles, the top quartile (>8.10 mm) had a 2.49 (95% CI: 1.36-4.56) times greater risk of stroke compared to the bottom quartile (≤6.80 mm) after adjustment was made for other variables. The C-R relationship further confirmed a positive association between CCA diameter and stroke prevalence in women. Moreover, a category-free net reclassification index (0.325; 95% CI: 0.173-0.476; P<0.001) and an integrated discrimination index (0.008; 95% CI: 0.004-0.012, P<0.001) showed improvement in predicting the probability of stroke from CCA diameter. However, no significant relationship between CCA diameter and prevalence of stroke was found in men. The risk of stroke increased proportionally with the enlargement of the CCA diameter in women, supporting the sex-specific value of CCA diameter in optimizing the risk stratification of stroke.