Abstract
ObjectiveWe investigated the association between metabolic factors and End-Stage Renal Disease (ESRD) and quantified the magnitude of their influence dependent on sex and time of exposure up to 20 years.Material and MethodsA prospective cohort study was conducted to determine risk factors for the development of ESRD. From 1988 to 2005 185,341 persons (53.9% women) participated in the “Vorarlberg Health Monitoring and Promotion Programme” (VHM&PP). Data on body mass index (BMI), fasting blood glucose (FBG), systolic (BPsys) and diastolic (BPdia) blood pressure, total cholesterol (TC), triglycerides (TG), gamma-glutamyltransferase (GGT) and smoking status were collected. Data of the population-based VHM&PP were merged with the Austrian Dialysis and Transplant Registry. Cox proportional hazards models were applied to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) for ESRD, stratified by sex and 5-year time intervals.ResultsDuring a mean follow-up of 17.5 years 403 patients (39.1% women) developed ESRD. Significant risk factors were: BMI (per 1 kg/m2) HR 1.04 (95% CI 1.01–1.06), FBG (per 1 mmol/L) HR 1.09 (1.05–1.12), BPsys (per 5 mmHg) HR 1.10 (1.07–1.14), BPdia (per 5 mmHg) HR 1.09 (1.03–1.15), TG (per 1 mmol/L) HR 1.07 (1.02–1.13), TC (per 1 mmol/L) HR 1.22 (1.13–1.32). We observed a sex-specific risk pattern with an increased ESRD risk for men for increasing TG and smoking, and for women for increasing BMI and GGT. In time interval analyses BPsys and TC were associated with early ESRD onset, whereas BMI, FBG, BPdia and GGT were associated with later onset.ConclusionsAnthropometric and metabolic factors are differentially associated with the long-term risk for ESRD in a sex- and time-dependent manner. Consideration of these patterns in preventive and therapeutic strategies could have an impact on ESRD incidence.
Highlights
The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript
Anthropometric and metabolic factors are differentially associated with the long-term risk for end-stage renal disease (ESRD) in a sex- and time-dependent manner
Consideration of these patterns in preventive and therapeutic strategies could have an impact on ESRD incidence
Summary
On a global scale the number of patients suffering from chronic kidney disease (CKD) and end-stage renal disease (ESRD) is increasing [1]. It is highly desirable to identify risk factors that allow early detection of individuals who are at increased risk for developing CKD and ESRD later in life. Several factors such as age, male sex, diabetes, hypertension and obesity have been identified in previous studies [6,7,8]. A prior meta-analysis reported that the metabolic syndrome and its components are associated with the development of CKD [14] Identification of such risk factors is valuable, because it would enable early preventive and therapeutic interventions in order to reduce the future development of CKD and progression to ESRD
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