Severity Analysis of Multi-Truck Crashes on Mountain Freeways Using a Mixed Logit Model

Abstract

Many studies have analyzed the road characteristics that affect the severity of truck crashes. However, most of these studies have only examined road alignment or grade separately, without considering their combined effects. The purpose of this article is to address this gap in the literature. Our study uses truck crash data from 2015 to 2019 on freeways in the Yunnan Province of China, where the severity levels of the crashes were determined by taking into account economic loss and the number of injuries and fatalities. Our study develops three models to examine the severity of truck crashes: a multinomial logit model, a mixed logit model, and a generalized ordered logit model. The findings suggest that the mixed logit model, which can suffer from unobserved heterogeneity, is more suitable because of the higher pseudo-R-squared (ρ2) value and lower Akaike Information Criterion and Bayesian Information Criterion. The estimation results show that the combination of curve and slope significantly increases the severity of truck crashes compared to curves and slopes alone. In addition, risk factors such as crash type, vehicle type, surface condition, time of day, pavement structure, and guardrails have a significant impact on the severity of truck crashes on mountainous freeways. Based on these findings, we developed policy recommendations for reducing the severity of multi-truck collisions on mountainous highways and improving transport sustainability. For example, if possible, the combination of curve and slope should be avoided. Additionally, it is recommended that trucks use tires with good heat resistance.