Several Influence Factors on Acute Hemorrhagic Conjunctivitis Diffusion within Airport Terminal with Agent-based SEIR Model

Abstract

Since the outbreak of pandemics, acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis (AHC) has caused extensive attention in the field of public health. The purpose of this study was to quantitatively evaluate the influences of super spreader, passenger source and social relation structure on the AHC transmission in terminal. A method combining hierarchical structure of personal contact network with agent-based SEIR model was proposed to analyze the characteristics of AHC diffusion within terminal. Based on the spatial distance between individuals, the hierarchical structure of personal contact network was defined to construct a complex relationship of passengers in the real world. The agent-based SEIR model was improved by considering the individual level of AHC spread characteristics and influence of super spreader. Moreover, the characteristic of passenger movement was described by the improved social force model. To evaluate the method, this process was fused in simulation based on the constructed personal contact network, and personal contact network was defined by following four layers: social relation structure, subareas, space distribution, and the whole terminal. Super spreader and partition of passenger sources were found to impact a lot in departure, while social relation structure imposed a great influence in arrival. It contributes to proposing effective AHC measures by airport relevant department and improving the efficiency and ability of epidemic prevention on the public health.