Seven-year incidence and progression of obesity: Characterization of body fat pattern evolution in low-income Mexico city urban population

Abstract

Background. There are no prospective data regarding the natural history of obesity in Mexico. The objective of this research was to investigate the incidence and progression of obesity in a low-income sector of Mexico City and to characterize evolution of body fat pattern distribution. Methods. We carried out a population-based, prospective survey. Total on-site population was 15,532 persons; we determined as eligible all 35 to 64-year-old men and nonpregnant women for a total of 3,505. We interviewed at baseline 3,319 (94.7%) individuals and examined 2,282 (65.1%). At follow-up approximately 7 years later, we interviewed 1,764 (77.3%) subjects and examined 1,594 (69.9%). Measurements for all participants included height, weight, body mass index (BMI), waist-hip circumference, and subscapular and triceps skinfold thickness. Overweight was defined as BMI ≥25 and ≤29.9 kg/m 2, while grade 1 obesity was BMI ≥30 and ≤34.9 kg/m 2, grade 2 was ≥35 and ≤39.9, and grade 3, ≥40 kg/m 2. Results. At baseline, prevalence of overweight was 48.6%, and grade 1 obesity, 22.7%, grade 2, 5.1%, and grade 3 obesity was 1.4%; at follow-up, these were 45.2, 25.8, 6.6, and 2.3%, respectively. At baseline, mean BMI in women was 29.1±0.16 kg/m 2 and in men, 27.3±0.15 kg/m 2; at follow-up, it reached 29.4±0.17 kg/m 2 in women and 27.4±0.16 kg/m 2 in men. Waist circumference increased from mean of 99.7±0.44 cm in women to 101.2±0.42 cm; in men, mean waist circumference rose from 95.2±0.38 to 96.7±0.39 cm. Conclusions. The obesity epidemic in this population possesses serious proportions that increase risk for severe metabolic consequences. There is a need for intervention.