Seven billion people today, many more tomorrow – How we got here and what we expect and wish

Abstract

In 2012 the world’s population reached seven billion and it is project that it will increase to ten billion by the end of the century. Crowded as the world is today and despite a decreasing fertility rate we face a future with still greater constraints on food and water supplies. This larger population will produce an even more profound effect on climate while further upsetting the ecological balance of the seas and land. Many causes have contributed to this acceleration of annual population growth since World War II. Improved living conditions greater access to clean and water and to effective sewages systems disease prevention and treatment programs and a more productive agriculture have all played a role. In addition improved health and economic conditions have extended life expectancy. Due to advances in modern contraception total fertility rates have dropped and with it infant mortality rates have decreased. The bulk of the number of people who will add to the world population in the next 40 years will be in Africa which has been estimated using demographic data projecting annual birth rates death rates and total fertility rates. It is argued that investment in family planning programs produces dividends of lower fertility healthier women and lower infant mortality rates. Joined with investments in education wealthier countries should contributed a small fraction of their income to strengthen these programs in sub-Saharan Africa permitting a slower sustained growth an earlier stabilization and as in the case of Europe – an eventual downturn in world population.