Settlement network topology as a factor of rural population dynamics (a case study of Tyumen oblast)

Abstract

After a brief counter-urbanization of the early 1990s, rural out-migration resumed in Russia. Population concentrates in large settlements, while small and medium-sized towns and villages lose people. The farther rural settlements from regional center the greater the outflow of people. Centripetal tendencies can be mitigated or amplified at local level, where specific conditions of the area come to fore. The authors suggest settlement network pattern as one of such contextual factors, whose effects on population dynamics are still poorly understood. The paper poses two questions: what the effects of settlement network topology on the rate of population concentration are, and how population dynamics in individual settlements depends on their position in settlement network. Based on a case study of Tyumen oblast of Russia the authors investigated population dynamics in 2002–2010 with methods of network, cluster and regression analysis. The authors did not find relationship between density and centralization of settlement network and rate of population concentration. However, the study revealed a significant role, played by the network position in determining individual settlements population increase/decrease. Together with initial population size, the network position explained 23–24% of the variance in population dynamics among the towns and villages of Tyumen oblast. Outside the Tyumen metropolitan area settlements with highest inter-district network centrality grew. It is noteworthy that configuration of the regional settlement network at inter-district level emerged during the period of colonization of Western Siberia in 17–19 centuries. The configuration largely stems from the river network. Thus, even if the factors, which determined settlement network pattern, have lost their force, the settlement pattern itself continues to affect social space.