Abstract
The aim of the article is to establish a regression equation that determines the influence of technological factors on the content of flavonoids in the extract for further use in optimizing the technology for obtaining an extract based on horse chestnut. The task of the research was to identify a mathematical model to describe the effect of technological parameters of extraction on the target quality indicators of a given dosage form, in particular, on the quantitative content of flavonoids.
 Materials and methods. The proposed approach is based on mathematical processing of experimental results obtained according to plan 23 using the computer program Mathcad 14 and MS Excel. To establish a mathematical description, an analysis of the separate influence of technological factors on the target indicator was carried out and the possibility of forming a geometric mean function was determined using the corresponding linear regression equations.
 Results. The general problem of identification was solved, when it was necessary to reveal both the mechanism of influence of technological factors on the value of the target indicator, and to give a quantitative assessment of the unknown parameters of the regression equation. Based on the results of experimental observations, an adequate mathematical model was established in the form of a linear multiple regression equation with the interaction of factors.
 Conclusions. The obtained mathematical description makes it possible to analyze the influence of technological factors on the quantitative content of the complex of flavonoids in the herbal extract in the range of the investigated factor space, and also to optimize the technological parameters of extraction
Highlights
The presence of three independent variables in this experiment excludes the visualization of the experimental response surface for a preliminary assessment of the type of the mathematical model
The correlation analysis showed a complete lack of correlation between the content of flavonoids in the extract (y1) and an increase in the extraction time (x2) for more than 24 hours, as well as the absence of a statistical relationship between the concentration of ethanol (x1) and the ratio of the extractant to raw material (x3) in the given ranges of values
The resulting regression equation shows that the completeness of the extraction of flavonoids by a waterethanol mixture is significantly affected by the concentration of ethyl alcohol and the extractant/raw material ratio
Summary
The preparation of extracts from plant materials is widely used in the pharmaceutical industry This process has a number of specific features that complicate the regulation and optimization of its technological parameters. The existing methods for constructing mathematical models allow the use of various modifications of the planned experiment [3], which cannot always be effectively applied for traditional mathematical processing. This is especially true for multifactorial models that include more than two factors and require a large number of experimental observations [4]. The usual methods of establishing dependencies are unsuitable, and there is a need to develop such methods that would be effective in these conditions [5]
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