Abstract

Conservation planning and biodiversity assessments need quantitative targets to optimize planning options and assess the adequacy of current species protection. However, targets aiming at persistence require population-specific data, which limit their use in favor of fixed and nonspecific targets, likely leading to unequal distribution of conservation efforts among species. We devised a method to derive equitable population targets; that is, quantitative targets of population size that ensure equal probabilities of persistence across a set of species and that can be easily inferred from species-specific traits. In our method, we used models of population dynamics across a range of life-history traits related to species' body mass to estimate minimum viable population targets. We applied our method to a range of body masses of mammals, from 2 g to 3825 kg. The minimum viable population targets decreased asymptotically with increasing body mass and were on the same order of magnitude as minimum viable population estimates from species- and context-specific studies. Our approach provides a compromise between pragmatic, nonspecific population targets and detailed context-specific estimates of population viability for which only limited data are available. It enables a first estimation of species-specific population targets based on a readily available trait and thus allows setting equitable targets for population persistence in large-scale and multispecies conservation assessments and planning.

Highlights

  • A key goal in conservation biology is the protection of species to ensure stable and viable populations over time (Shaffer 1981)

  • Conservation targets that aim at population persistence can be expressed in terms of the minimum population size to be conserved because population size is a major determinant of wildlife population persistence (Reed et al 2003; Sanderson 2006)

  • The minimum viable population (MVP) is typically quantified on the basis of population viability analyses (PVAs), which are applied to estimate extinction probabilities based on long-term population data on wildlife demographic rates (Akcakaya & Sjogren-Gulve 2000)

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Summary

Introduction

A key goal in conservation biology is the protection of species to ensure stable and viable populations over time (Shaffer 1981). The MVP is typically quantified on the basis of population viability analyses (PVAs), which are applied to estimate extinction probabilities based on long-term population data on wildlife demographic rates (Akcakaya & Sjogren-Gulve 2000). The MVP estimated through PVA has a certain probability to persist given its current growth rate, which depends on species’ life-history characteristics and environmental conditions (e.g., habitat, resources, and external pressures). These MVPs have a short temporal validity, are highly context dependent, and are typically inapplicable to other conspecific populations. MVPs have been calculated for only a limited number of species, often those most studied (Flather et al 2011)

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