Service vulnerability assessment of China's high-speed train network: A simulation approach

Abstract

This study proposes a simulation approach to assess the service vulnerability of a high-speed railway (HSR) at the network scale. The service vulnerability assessment is defined with train service adjustments, including cancelations, detour arrangements, and changes in departure or arrival station. Service vulnerability metrics in terms of passengers carried are proposed by quantifying the percentage change in the network-wide performance. Using actual passenger flow data generated from the ticket-booking system, a simulation is conducted to evaluate the service vulnerability of China's HSR network under various disruptions. Sensitivity analysis is conducted to emphasize the impact of train service adjustments during disruptions. The results of the critical station and critical city identification show the significance of the Beijing–Shanghai HSR line, as stations located along this line present considerable vulnerability. Nanjing South, the HSR station with the largest passenger volume, was also the most critical station in China's HSR train network in 2016. A comparative analysis of vulnerability assessments with and without adjustments demonstrates the necessity of examining service vulnerability. The findings have insightful management implications for mitigating HSR service network vulnerability and preparing emergency response plans for operators and administrators.