Abstract
A model is developed to evaluate the sensitivity of expected passenger wait time at transit stops to service frequency and schedule reliability. This model represents an advance over previous models because it explicitly incorporates a passenger decision-making process, rather than assuming that passengers arrive at random instants in time. The model is tested against more traditional models using data from the Chicago area. These tests indicate that the passenger-choice model represents a significant improvement in predictive ability. The implications of this model are that passenger wait time is much more sensitive to schedule reliability and much less sensitive to service frequency than previously believed.
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