Abstract
Understanding the actual prevalence of COVID-19 transmission in the community is vital for strategic responses to the pandemic. This study aims to estimate the actual infection of COVID-19 through a seroprevalence survey and to predict infection fatality rate (IFR) in Tanjung Priok, the hardest-hit sub-district by the COVID-19 in Jakarta, Indonesia. We conducted a venous blood sampling (phlebotomy) to 3,196 individuals in Tanjung Priok between Nov 23, 2020, and Feb 19, 2021 to detect their antibodies against SARS-CoV-2. Using an enumerator-administered questionnaire, we collected data on the respondents' demographic characteristics, COVID-19 test history, COVID-19 symptoms in the last 14 days, comorbidities, and protective behaviours during the last month. We employed descriptive analysis to estimate the seroprevalence and IFR. The prevalence of Antibody against SARS-CoV-2 was 28.52% (95% CI 25.44-31.81%), with the result being higher in females than males (OR 1.20; 95% CI 1.02-1.42). By the end of the data collection (February 9, 2021), the cumulative cases of COVID-19 in Tanjung Priok were reported to be experienced by 9,861 people (2.4%). Those aged 45-65 were more likely to be seropositive than 15-19 years old (OR 1.42; 95% CI 1.05-1.92). Nearly one third (31%) of the subjects who developed at least one COVID-19 symptom in the last 14 days of the data collection were seropositive. The estimated IFR was 0.08% (95% CI 0.07-0.09), with a higher figure recorded in males (0.09; 95% CI 0.08-0.10) than females (0.07; 95% CI 0.06-0.08), and oldest age group (45-65) (0.21; 95% CI 0.18-0.23) than other younger groups. An under-reporting issue was found between the estimated COVID-19 seroprevalence and the reported cumulative cases in Tanjung Priok. More efforts are required to amplify epidemiological surveillance by the provincial and local governments.
Highlights
Since the first case of COVID-19 in Indonesia detected on March 6, 2020, the country has been enormously affected by the ongoing pandemic [1]
This study aims to estimate the actual infection of COVID-19 through a seroprevalence survey and to predict infection fatality rate (IFR) in Tanjung Priok, the hardest-hit sub-district by the COVID-19 in Jakarta, Indonesia
An under-reporting issue was found between the estimated COVID-19 seroprevalence and the reported cumulative cases in Tanjung Priok
Summary
Since the first case of COVID-19 in Indonesia detected on March 6, 2020, the country has been enormously affected by the ongoing pandemic [1]. It raises an urgency to conduct a seroprevalence study to estimate the actual prevalence of COVID-19 infections in the community. Is this approach pivotal to obtain the actual proportion of the people who have already had antibodies against the coronavirus, but given the demographic heterogeneity in Indonesia, having granular data on the community level may help the government provide better-targeted public health responses during this pandemic [14]. This study aims to estimate the actual infection of COVID-19 through a seroprevalence survey and to predict infection fatality rate (IFR) in Tanjung Priok, the hardest-hit sub-district by the COVID-19 in Jakarta, Indonesia
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