Abstract
What is already known about this topic?The key epidemiological parameters including serial interval, basic reproductive number (R0), and effective reproductive number (Rt) are crucial for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) control and prevention. Previous studies provided different estimations but were often flawed by some limitations such as insufficient sample size and selection bias. What is added by this report?In this study, a total of 116 infector-infectee pairs meeting strict inclusion criteria were selected for analysis. The mean serial interval of COVID-19 was 5.81 days (standard deviation: 3.24). The estimated mean with 95% confidence interval of R0 was 3.39 (3.07–3.75) and 2.98 (2.62–3.38) using exponential growth (EG) and maximum likelihood (ML) methods, respectively. The Rt in the early phase of the epidemic was above 1 with the peak of 4.43 occurring on January 8, and then showing subsequent declines and approaching 1 on January 24. What are the implications for public health practices?This study supports previous findings that COVID-19 has high transmissibility and that implementing comprehensive measures is effective in controlling the COVID-19 outbreak.
Highlights
Using the serial interval distribution described above, we estimated that R0 was 2.98 and 3.39 by the maximum likelihood (ML) and exponential growth (EG) methods, respectively
The R0 estimated by EG method ranged between 2.12 to 4.51 when the mean serial interval increased from 1.5 and 5 days, all of which are significantly higher than 1
The mean serial interval was estimated as 5.81 days (SD=3.24), which was higher than the estimate by Nishiura et al (4.6 days) [6] but lower than the early estimation in Wuhan City (7.5 days) [4]
Summary
Serial Interval and Reproductive Number of COVID-19 Among 116 Infector-infectee Pairs — Jingzhou City, Hubei Province, China, 2020. The key epidemiological parameters including serial interval, basic reproductive number (R0), and effective reproductive number (Rt) are crucial for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) control and prevention. We aimed to estimate serial interval, basic reproductive number (R0) of COVID-19, and the time-dependent reproductive number (Rt) using epidemiolocal data from 1,365 confirmed cases and 116 infector-infectee pairs in Jingzhou City, Hubei Province. The serial interval was defined as the time between symptom onset in a primary case (infector) and a second case (infectee) in a transmission chain [3]. The R0 estimated by EG method ranged between 2.12 (95% CI: 2.00–2.26) to 4.51 (95% CI: 3.97–5.13) when the mean serial interval increased from 1.5 and 5 days, all of which are significantly higher than 1.
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