Serendipity in Science

Abstract

Prior literature has noted that serendipitous discoveries have played an important role in science. Scholars who have explored the phenomenon generally agree that researchers with a prepared mind stand to benefit from unplanned encounters. However, there are two contrasting perspectives on what form of a prepared mind would be most beneficial. Some scholars have suggested that an open mind would be helpful while others argue that deep experience would be most favorable. Yet, due to its spontaneous nature, serendipitous discoveries have been difficult to study in a systematic manner. In this paper, we leverage a policy shock in which the shelving orders of journals in university libraries were exogenously shifted due to a change in the Anglo-American Cataloging Rules between 1981 to 1989, exposing researchers to unsought journals. In this natural experiment, we find that researchers with a broad set of knowledge, compared to ones with narrow expertise, are more likely to gain from serendipitous encounters.