Abstract

This article outlines the contribution of tropical deforestation to global warming and assesses the prospects for changes in tropical forest cover trends that would slow climate change. Deforestation releases greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, and reforestation removes them by sequestering carbon. An end to deforestation, coupled with reforestation, could become an important component in near-term strategies for mitigating climate change. To assess the likelihood of this scenario, this article reviews the effectiveness of recent efforts to conserve or create forests in tropical countries. These efforts could mark the beginning of a transition from deforestation to reforestation. A tropical forest transition could achieve substantial amounts of carbon sequestration if elites press for multiple means of conservation, the land productivity of agriculture improves, and nonfarm economic sectors absorb surplus rural labor.

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