Abstract
Time-dependent reliability and reliability sensitivity analysis in presence of random uncertainty is widespread in equipment structures. To this end, this paper establishes a sequentially quadratic surrogate method. Firstly, the global reliability sensitivity analysis (GRS) is transformed into the classification problem of the time-dependent performance function outputs by means of conditional probability formula. Secondly, referring to the strategy of the Meta-IS method, the Kriging model of time-dependent performance function is employed to construct the importance sampling function to generate the importance sampling (IS) samples of failure domain efficiently. Furthermore, the Kriging model is updated in the IS samples set through the single-loop adaptive Kriging method to realize the accurate identification of the failure indicator function of IS samples, as well as simulation of time-dependent failure probability. Finally, utilize the information of the failure samples obtained by the estimation of time-dependent reliability to evaluate GRS. The proposed algorithm has excellent computational efficiency and applicability due to the conversion of the conditional probability formula, which enables the computational consumption of the time-dependent reliability and GRS analysis independent of the dimensions of the inputs, as well as the Meta-IS method, which improves the sampling efficiency and is applicable to the case of complex implicit performance function. The given examples fully verify the conclusions.
Published Version
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