Sequential Route Choice Modeling Based on Dynamic Reference Points and Its Empirical Study

Xueqin Long,Chenxi Hou,Yuejiao Wang,Shanshan Liu

doi:10.1155/2020/8081576

Xueqin Long, Chenxi Hou + Show 2 more

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https://doi.org/10.1155/2020/8081576

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Abstract

Aiming at the influence of information, we investigate and analyze the sequential route choice behavior under dynamic reference points based on cumulative prospect theory in this paper. An experiment platform collecting the sequential route choices based on C/S structure is designed and four types of information are released to participants, respectively. Real-time travel time prediction methods are then proposed for travelers’ decision-making. Using nonlinear regression method, the parameters of the value function and weight function of cumulative prospect theory are estimated under different types of information, respectively. It is found that travelers’ behavior showed obvious characteristic of risk pursuit under the circumstance where real-time travel time information is released. Instead, when they have access to descriptive information, they tend to be more conservative.

Highlights

Perfect rationality theory, which assumes that the option will be chosen only with the minimum cost or maximum utility, is widely used in modeling travelers’ route choice, mode choice, and travel time choice behavior [1]
If j ≠ i, we consider that the state of route choice is “switch”; else the state of route choice is “keep.” If tr,j − tr− 1,i > 0, we consider that the time saving is “loss”; if tr,j − tr− 1,i < 0, we suggest that the time saving is “gain.”
It can be seen that α(β) under which travel time information is available (Scenario 2 and Scenario 4) is always larger than that under descriptive information (Scenario 1 and Scenario 3)

Summary

Introduction

Perfect rationality theory, which assumes that the option will be chosen only with the minimum cost or maximum utility, is widely used in modeling travelers’ route choice, mode choice, and travel time choice behavior [1]. Plenty of research shows that travelers may not be able to obtain the information of optimal route due to the uncertainty of information. Based on the bounded-rationality theory, Kahneman and Tversky put forward the prospect theory (PT) in 1979 and cumulative prospect theory (CPT) in 1992 [3, 4] on the basis of economic experiments. Instead of using the utility maximization theory, PT and CPT assume that one man will pursue risks in face of gains and avoid risks in face of losses. A large number of studies have proved that the cumulative prospect theory is more consistent with the actual travel behavior than the expected utility theory [5,6,7,8]

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