Sequential Pareto‐Optimal Decisions Made During Emergent Complex Systems of Systems: An Application to the FAA NextGen

Abstract

ABSTRACTThis article addresses the challenges facing participants, including stakeholders, decision makers, systems engineers, and risk analysts in modeling and managing the development of on‐going emergent complex systems of systems (S‐o‐S), with a focus on the centrality of the state variables and the time frame. More specifically, this article addresses the critical role that shared (common) states and decisions, and the time frame play in modeling the interconnectedness and interdependencies among the subsystems that constitute emergent (S‐o‐S). The theoretical and methodological concepts are harmonized through their relevance to the ongoing emergent Federal Aviation Administration's (FAA's) Next Generation (NextGen) complex (S‐o‐S) project. Appropriate parts of the Dynamic Roadmap for risk modeling, assessment, management, and communication and their companion principles and guidelines, are used to guide the analyses. Moreover, decisions made at time t for one subsystem will subsequently change the states of that subsystem as well as affect other interconnected and interdependent subsystems that share states. This phenomenon is profoundly important even when the time frame of the affected states is measured in months or years, as is the case in the application discussed in this article. The centrality of the time frame in decision making is even more important when the impact of current decisions on future options affect not only the intended subsystem, but can also inadvertently affect other subsystems in the future. A Flowchart relates the (S‐o‐S)‐based theory and methodology to the FAA's NextGen complex (S‐o‐S) project.