Abstract

Sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score is commonly used to determine disease severity and predict prognosis in critically ill patients. However, the prognostic value of SOFA after acute paraquat (PQ) poisoning remains unclear. This meta-analysis aimed to study the capability of SOFA to predict mortality in patients with PQ poisoning. Databases that included PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, ScienceDirect, Embase, and Cochrane Library were searched through May 2018. Six studies involving 946 patients were included in the meta-analysis. Study-specific odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated, and then ORs with 95% CIs were pooled for the estimation of the prognostic role of SOFA in patients with PQ poisoning. Results showed that higher SOFA in patients with PQ poisoning was related to severe mortality (OR = 8.14, 95%CI 4.26–15.58, p<0.001). The pooled sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratio, negative likelihood ratio, diagnostic OR, and area under the curve were 72% (95%CI 0.65–0.79), 75% (95%CI 0.65–0.83), 2.9 (95%CI 2.0–4.1), 0.37 (95%CI 0.28–0.41), 8 (95%CI 4–14), and 0.79 (95%CI 0.76–0.83), respectively. No evidence of publication bias was detected by funnel plot analysis and formal statistical tests. Sensitivity analyses showed no important differences in the estimates of effects. The high SOFA score (8.1-fold) was associated with severe mortality in patients with PQ poisoning.

Highlights

  • As a highly effective, nonselecting, and fast-acting herbicide, paraquat (PQ) is harmless to the environment because of its rapid decomposition into nontoxic compounds after soil contact

  • This study aimed to develop a reliable indicator to predict survival after PQ poisoning

  • Identifying the factors associated with early mortality may offer primary clinical information, which will be used to make correct evaluations and decisions and increase the chances of survival

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Summary

Introduction

As a highly effective, nonselecting, and fast-acting herbicide, paraquat (PQ) is harmless to the environment because of its rapid decomposition into nontoxic compounds after soil contact. These excellent properties led to the adoption of PQ worldwide over the past few decades. PQ ingestion occurs frequently in the agricultural countryside, either accidentally or as a suicide attempt, thereby posing a serious public health problem. PQ accounts for an estimated 20 deaths per million person-years worldwide [1,2,3]. Many investigators have attempted to find efficacious treatments for the management of acute PQ poisoning, the clinical therapeutics are still unsatisfactory, and the mortality rate remains tremendously high.

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