Sequential integrated antenatal screening for Down's syndrome, trisomy 18 and trisomy 13.

Abstract

To estimate the performance of antenatal sequential Integrated screening for Down's syndrome (DS), trisomy 18 (T18) and trisomy 13 (T13), in which women have first trimester testing for each disorder; those above specified risk cut-offs are screen-positive, and the remainder continue to Integrated testing, using first and second trimester screening markers together. Published screening marker parameters and Monte Carlo simulation were used to calculate detection rates (DR's) and risk cut-off levels for specified false-positive rates (FPR's), and DR's and FPR's for specified risk cut-offs. We compared this screening performance with that based on all women having Integrated tests. Sequential Integrated DS screening detects 71% of DS pregnancies at the first trimester stage at a 0.5% FPR. For an overall 2% FPR, the DS DR is 92%, the same screening performance as the Integrated test performed on all women. Sequential Integrated T18 and T13 screening detects 70% of T18 and 53% of T13 pregnancies at the first trimester stage at a 0.05% FPR for each. The overall T18 and T13 DR's are 96% and 72% respectively at 0.2% FPR, the same screening performance as with Integrated tests performed on all women. Increasing the overall FPR's does not materially increase the DR's for any of the three disorders. The performance of sequential Integrated screening is similar to the performance if all women have an Integrated test, but has the advantage of identifying most DS, T18, and T13 pregnancies a few weeks earlier.