Sequential decision‐theoretic models and expert systems

Abstract

Sequential decision models are an important component of expert systems since, in general, the cost of acquiring information is significant and there is a trade‐off between the cost and the value of information. Many expert systems in various domains (business, engineering, medicine etc.), needing costly inputs that are not known until the system operates, have to face this problem. In the last decade the field of sequential decision models based on decision theory (sequential decision‐theoretic models) have become more and more important due to both the continuous progress made by research in Bayesian networks and the availability of modern powerful tools for building Bayesian networks and for probability propagation. This paper provides readers (especially knowledge engineers and expert system designers) with a unified and integrated presentation of the disparate literature in the field of sequential decision‐making based on decision theory, in order to improve comprehensibility and accessibility. Besides the presentation of the general theory, a view of sequential diagnosis as an instance of the general concept of sequential decision‐theoretic models is also shown.