Sequential climate decisions under uncertainty: An integrated framework

Abstract

We develop an integrated framework for evaluating sequential greenhouse gas abatement policies under uncertainty. The analysis integrates information concerning the magnitude, timing, and impacts of climate change with data on the likely effectiveness and cost of possible response options. Reduced-scale representations of the global climate system, drawn from the MIT Integrated Global System Model, form the empirical basis of the analysis. The method is illustrated in application to emissions control policies of the form considered under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.