Sequential allocation of vaccine to control an infectious disease

Abstract

The problem of optimally allocating a limited supply of vaccine to control a communicable disease has broad applications in public health and has received renewed attention during the COVID-19 pandemic. This allocation problem is highly complex and nonlinear. Decision makers need a practical, accurate, and interpretable method to guide vaccine allocation. In this paper we develop simple analytical conditions that can guide the allocation of vaccines over time. We consider four objectives: minimize new infections, minimize deaths, minimize life years lost, or minimize quality-adjusted life years lost due to death. We consider an SIR model with interacting population groups. We approximate the model using Taylor series expansions, and develop simple analytical conditions characterizing the optimal solution to the resulting problem for a single time period. We develop a solution approach in which we allocate vaccines using the analytical conditions in each time period based on the state of the epidemic at the start of the time period. We illustrate our method with an example of COVID-19 vaccination, calibrated to epidemic data from New York State. Using numerical simulations, we show that our method achieves near-optimal results over a wide range of vaccination scenarios. Our method provides a practical, intuitive, and accurate tool for decision makers as they allocate limited vaccines over time, and highlights the need for more interpretable models over complicated black box models to aid in decision making.