Sequential action-based dynamic decision-support model for urban ecological planning

Abstract

Decision-makers often encounter the challenge of efficient long-term ecological planning to consider economic and environmental trade-offs. This challenge becomes particularly complex while addressing dynamic ecological responses to ongoing urban development. Thus, we developed a sequential action-based dynamic decision-making model to simulate sequential action mitigation measures over time, while considering the dynamic ecological responses that emerge with urban development. We used a multi-objective optimization algorithm to identify optimal plans that maximize landscape connectivity and edge density, while minimizing the implementation costs per action. We focused on utilizing ecological corridors and habitat creation as mitigation measures from 1980s to 2010s. The results show that the initial low-investment strategy adopted in 1980s and sequential planning led to significantly improved ecological benefits beyond the 2000s when compared to the single-action planning approach implemented in 2010s. In contrast, an initial high-cost investment in the 1980s gradual declined the ecological benefits starting from 1995. We have demonstrated that adopting sequential planning provides valuable insights into effective urban ecological planning, especially when analyzing time-series data. This sequential approach enables decision-makers to make informed choices, thereby ultimately facilitating sustainable urban and regional planning.