Separating the Impacts of Climate Variation and Human Activities on Runoff in the Songhua River Basin, Northeast China

Fengping Li,Yi Xu,Guangxin Zhang

doi:10.3390/w6113320

Abstract

Climate variation and human activities are commonly recognized as two major factors affecting basin hydrology. However, quantifying their individual effect on runoff is challenging. In this study, long-term (1960–2009) river discharge and weather data in the Songhua River Basin (SRB, 556,800 km2), Northeast China, were gathered to separate the impacts of climate variation and human activities on runoff in five sub basins of the SRB. Mann-Kendall test, moving t-test and precipitation-runoff double cumulative curve were utilized to identify trends and change points of the hydrometeorlogical variables. Based on the change point, the 50-year study period was divided into two time series: 1960–1974 where minimal human activities took place and 1975–2009 where extensive land use change occurred and river engineering projects were undertaken. Subsequently, individual contributions of climate and human factors were assessed through a hydrologic sensitivity analysis. Our study found a significant decline in runoff of the SRB over the past 50 years. Contribution of climate variation and human activities to the change varied temporally and spatially. For the 1975–2009 period, human activities made a greater contribution (62%–82%) to the total runoff decline of the SRB. However, climate variation played a bigger role in runoff reduction in two sub river basins (63%–65%) between 1975 and 1989, as well as in runoff increase in other two sub river basins (85%–86%) between 1990 and 1999. Spatially, the effect of human activities on runoff decline was relatively stronger in the lower basin areas in the 1960s and 1970s while showing an increasing role in the upper basin areas in the past two decades.

Highlights

In recent decades, streamflow decline has been observed in many rivers throughout the world
The average annual precipitation varied from 450 mm in Lower Nenjiang River Basin (LNRB) to 815 mm in USSRB
The results showed that the average runoff during the last 35 years declined in all sub river basins of the Songhua River Basin (SRB) when compared with that of the previous 15 years before 1974

Summary

Introduction

Streamflow decline has been observed in many rivers throughout the world. Factors that could have affected the change include both climatic variation (e.g., changes in precipitation and temperature) and anthropogenic activities (e.g., land use change, dam construction, and river engineering). There has been an ongoing debate as to which of the two factors has played a greater role in the changes of discharge from the river basins. A number of studies have been conducted to separate the impact of climate variation and human activities on river discharge [7,8,9]. Using regression techniques Ye et al [10] and Tian et al [11]

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Results

Discussion

Conclusion