Sensitivity to changes in oil prices, tax returns and the cross-section of stock returns: The present situation for net-oil exporting economies

Abstract

This study investigates the sensitivity of stock returns to changes in oil prices and tax returns in net-oil exporting economies, focusing on the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries from March 30, 2003 to March 30, 2022. The problem statement addresses the challenge of understanding the interplay between oil price fluctuations, tax policies, and stock market dynamics in these economies, which are heavily reliant on oil revenues. The aim of the study is to provide insights into how variations in oil prices and tax returns impact the cross-section of stock returns in the GCC region. The objectives include analyzing the econometric relationships between oil prices, tax policies, and stock market performance using an appropriate econometric model. The results reveal a significant sensitivity of stock returns to changes in oil prices and tax returns in the GCC countries during the specified period. The econometric model employed indicates strong correlations between fluctuations in oil prices, tax policies, and stock market movements, highlighting the intricate connections between these variables. Moreover, the study identifies specific sectors within the stock market that are particularly sensitive to oil price changes and tax policy adjustments. Policymakers in the GCC countries can use these insights to design more effective fiscal and economic policies aimed at enhancing market stability and investor confidence amidst dynamic oil market conditions.