Sensitivity Study on 2013: Tropical Cyclones Using Different Cloud Microphysical and Planetary Boundary Layer Parameterisation Schemes in WRF Model

Abstract

The Indian subcontinent is the worst affected part of the world due to tropical cyclones (TCs). This region account for ~7 % 0.of the total number of global TCs (Gray 1968). The formation of TCs is more pronounced over Bay of Bengal (BOB) compared to Arabian Sea. A large number of TCs form over the BOB region generally move in the north and north-west directions and make landfall along the coastal regions of India, Bangladesh, and Myanmar (Tyagi et al. 2010; Mohapatra et al. 2012, 2015). These TCs have been responsible for the damage of property, loss of agriculture crops, and thousands of human lives (Paul 2010). In the BOB, TC genesis is highly seasonal with primary maximum in the post-monsoon season (October to December) and secondary maximum during pre-monsoon season (April and May). Hence, there is a need to improve the understanding and the forecast of TC over the Indian Ocean region. Several dynamic models have been used for the forecasting of the track and intensity of TC over specific regions. There has been significant improvement in recent years in terms of track, intensity and landfall forecasts (Mohapatra et al. 2013a,b,c). However, the accurate track and intensity predictions of TCs remain a challenging task for atmospheric scientists and the research community.