Abstract
Precipitation prediction is important to help mitigate the effects of drought and floods on various social and economic activities. This research is to improve the forecasting skill over Tanzania by providing suitable combinations of physical parameterization schemes and horizontal grid spacing of the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model for daily forecasting over Tanzania. The performance of different schemes on the precipitation systems during the wet and dry seasons over Tanzania is evaluated such that the sensitivity tests was performed for the WRF model at different horizontal resolutions, and for different physical parameterization schemes (convective and cloud microphysics). The results showed that the improved grid spacing was better at completing forecasts during the wet season, but had little significant impacts during the dry season. Model simulations with combinations of Lin et al. microphysics and the multiscale Kain–Fritsch scheme showed greater success during the both seasons; therefore, these combinations were recommended for Tanzania to resolve weather systems during the wet and dry season simulations, respectively.
Highlights
Rainfall is an important climate phenomenon that affects social and economic activities in Tanzania
Note that we only show the results with the threshold for an event of 10 mm or above for the wet season and 1 mm or above for the dry season
Tanzania is located in the tropics, where during the wet season, the dominant weather system is the inter tropical convergence zone (ITCZ), which produces deep convective systems, including thunderstorms
Summary
Rainfall is an important climate phenomenon that affects social and economic activities in Tanzania. The economy of Tanzania is mainly dependent on rain-fed agriculture, which is highly vulnerable to the amount and distribution of rainfall [1]. Excessive rainfall has a negative influence on socioeconomic activities in Tanzania, as it can lead to flooding, loss of life, and damage to properties. In Tanzania, rainfall has large temporal and spatial variability [2]. The Tanzania Meteorological Agency (TMA) is a government agency that acts as the country’s authoritative voice for weather and climate-related issues. Among the major responsibilities of the TMA is to provide weather forecasts at all scales to the public
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