Abstract
This study aimed to determine the predictability of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with different model physics options to identify the best set of physics parameters for predicting heavy rainfall events during the southwest and northeast monsoon seasons. Two case studies were used for the evaluation: heavy precipitation during the southwest monsoon associated with the simultaneous onset of the monsoon, and a low pressure system over the southwest Bay of Bengal that produced heavy rain over most of the country, with heavy precipitation associated with the northeast monsoon associated with monsoon flow and easterly disturbances. The modeling results showed large variation in the rainfall estimated by the model using the various model physics schemes, but several corresponding rainfall simulations were produced with spatial distribution aligned with rainfall station data, although the amount was not estimated accurately. Moreover, the WRF model was able to capture the rainfall patterns of these events in Sri Lanka, suggesting that the model has potential for operational use in numerical weather prediction in Sri Lanka.
Highlights
Preliminary study on predicting heavy rainfall in Sri Lanka using the Advanced Research Weather and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) model [1] has attempted to identify suitable microphysics and cumulus parameterizations to estimate quantitative precipitation during a selected four-day period in December2014, which was within the northeast monsoon season
Rasmusson and Carpenter [2] studied the relationship between eastern equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature and rainfall over Sri Lanka and India, while Zubair and Ropelewski [3] investigated the strengthening relationship between the El
This study focused on simulating two heavy rainfall events observed over Sri Lanka using
Summary
Preliminary study on predicting heavy rainfall in Sri Lanka using the Advanced Research Weather and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) model [1] has attempted to identify suitable microphysics and cumulus parameterizations to estimate quantitative precipitation during a selected four-day period in December2014, which was within the northeast monsoon season. Preliminary study on predicting heavy rainfall in Sri Lanka using the Advanced Research Weather and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) model [1] has attempted to identify suitable microphysics and cumulus parameterizations to estimate quantitative precipitation during a selected four-day period in December. It has been recognized that there is a need to conduct more case studies with more model physics options, and with an improved version of the model to determine a suitable combination of model physics to predict future events. The lack of studies on weather phenomena in Sri Lanka using numerical models such as the WRF was one of the reasons for this study. Previous studies were not able to identify the sensitivity of model parameters during the two monsoon seasons. This study is very important for both operational use and future research studies pertaining to rainfall simulation using the WRF-ARW model. Rasmusson and Carpenter [2] studied the relationship between eastern equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature and rainfall over Sri Lanka and India, while Zubair and Ropelewski [3] investigated the strengthening relationship between the El
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