Sensitivity study of reference crop evapotranspiration during growing season in the West Liao River basin, China

Abstract

We have analyzed the trends of reference crop evapotranspiration (ET0) through the Penman–Monteith model and climate factors in the West Liao River basin using the Mann–Kendall test after removing the effect of significant lag-1 serial correlation from the time series of the data by trend-free pre-whitening. The changing characteristics of the sensitivity coefficients and the spatial distribution during growing season are investigated, and the correlation between the sensitivity coefficients with elevation and the key climate factors by relative contribution and stepwise regression methods are evaluated. A significant overall increase in air temperature, and a significant decrease in wind speed, solar radiation, sunshine duration, relative humidity, and a slight decrease in ET0 are observed. Sensitivity analysis shows that ET0 is most sensitive to solar radiation, followed by relative humidity. In contrast, ET0 is least sensitive to the average air temperature. The sensitivity coefficients for the maximum and minimum air temperature and relative humidity have a significant negative correlation with elevation, while the coefficients for other variables are not strongly correlated with elevation. The spatial distribution of the sensitivity coefficients for wind speed and solar radiation is opposite, i.e., in regions where the sensitivity coefficients for wind speed are high; the sensitivity coefficients for solar radiation are low and vice versa. The sensitivity for relative humidity and average air temperature is region specific in the plain area. However, ET0 is most sensitive to the climate change in regions of high elevation. Wind speed is the most dominant contributor followed by solar radiation. Average air temperature contributes the least. The stepwise regression analysis indicates that wind speed is the foremost dominant variable influencing ET0. Relative contribution and stepwise regression analysis can be used to determine the main variables affecting ET0, and it also strongly supports that the aerodynamic component is the dominant factor.