Sensitivity studies with an upper ocean prediction model

Abstract

A series of sensitivity studies is carried out to demonstrate the relative importance of initial temperature profile errors and atmospheric forcing errors on upper ocean thermal structure prediction. Given a proper data assimilation technique, the sensitivity of the model to initial temperature profile errors is minimized. The seasonal dependence in the model sensitivity is due to variations in the magnitude and character of the atmospheric forcing as well as in the pre‐existing ocean thermal structure profile. The most important atmospheric forcing variable is the wind speed during both winter and summer. The conclusion of these studies is that the accuracy and predictability of the upper ocean thermal structure is intimately linked to the ability to specify the atmospheric forcing, and thus to the atmospheric predictability.