Sensitivity of vegetation phenology detection to the temporal resolution of satellite data

Abstract

Vegetation phenology derived from satellite data has increasingly received attention for applications in environmental monitoring and modelling. The accuracy of phenological estimates, however, is unknown at the regional and global level because field validation data are insufficient. To assess the accuracy of satellite‐derived phenology, this study investigates the sensitivity of phenology detection to both the temporal resolution of sampling and the number of consecutive missing values (usually representing cloud cover) in the time series of satellite data. To do this, time series of daily vegetation index data for various ecosystems are modelled and simulated using data from Moderate‐Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data. The annual temporal data are then fitted using piecewise logistic functions, which are employed to calculate curvature change rate for detecting phenological transition dates. The results show that vegetation phenology can be estimated with a high precision from time series with temporal resolutions of 6–16 days even if daily data contains some uncertainties. If the temporal resolution is no coarser than 16 days for time series sampled using an average composite, the absolute errors are less than 3 days. On the other hand, the phase shift of temporal sampling is shown to have limited impacts on phenology detection. However, the accuracy of phenology detection may be reduced greatly if missing values in the time series of 16‐day MODIS data occur around the onsets of phenological transition dates. Even so, the probability that the absolute error in phenological estimates is greater than 5 days is less than 4% when only one period is missing in the time series of 16‐day data during vegetation growing seasons; this probability increases to 20% if there are two consecutive missing values.