Sensitivity of typhoon wind hazard in coastal region to the track modelling and the considered historical best track database

Abstract

The tropical cyclone (TC) wind hazard is often assessed using the autoregressive type of model and the beta-advection model. In the present study, the beta-advection models are developed using the best track datasets from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). A comparison of statistics of the TC track parameters along the coastline of mainland China is presented using historical tracks and simulated tracks from the developed models. The comparison is extended by considering an existing autoregressive type of track model. Results show that the number of genesis per year based on the dataset in CMA is about 7% greater than that in JTWC. A comparison of the estimated T-year return period value of the annual maximum TC wind speed, vA-T, is presented using the three different track models. vA-T obtained based on the beta-advection model developed using the dataset from CMA is greater than that by using the dataset from JTWC by about 5%. vA-T estimated using the autoregressive type of model and the beta-advection model indicates that their differences are up to 10% and 12% for T equals 50 and 100 years if the dataset from CMA is considered.