SENSITIVITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACK TO ASSESSMENT OF SEVERE STORM SURGE EVENT AT TOKYO BAY

Abstract

In total 82 tropical cyclones data was used to determine scenarios of translation speed, minimum central pressure and track for risk assessment of storm surge at Tokyo Bay. The numerical simulation of waves and flows was conducted by solving non-linear long wave equations. The maximum surge height shows that the typhoon passing through along northeast directional track is dangerous for Tokyo Bay. This trend confirms the previous risk assessment was reasonable. However, it has been shown that the typhoon passing through along north directional track is also dangerous although the frequency is low. Especially, it is interesting that the typhoon passing through along northwest directional track causes distinctive resurgence and harbor oscillation.