Sensitivity of the tropical Pacific seasonal cycle and ENSO to changes in mean state induced by a surface heat flux adjustment in CCSM3

Abstract

The influence of mean climate on the seasonal cycle and the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the tropical Pacific climate is investigated using the Climate Community System Model Version 3 (CCSM3). An empirical time-independent surface heat flux adjustment over the tropical ocean is applied to the oceanic component of CCSM3. In comparison with the control run, the heat flux-adjusted run simulates a more realistic mean climate not only for the sea surface temperature (SST) but also for wind stress and precipitation. Even though the heat flux adjustment is time-independent, the seasonal cycles of SST, wind stress and precipitation over the equatorial eastern Pacific are more realistic in the flux-adjusted simulation. Improvements in the representation of the ENSO variability in the heat flux-adjusted simulation include that the Nino3.4 SST index is less regular than a strong biennial oscillation in the control run. But some deficiencies also arise. For example, the amplitude of the ENSO variability is reduced in the flux-adjusted run. The impact of the mean climate on ENSO prediction is further examined by performing a series of monthly hindcasts from 1982 to 1998 using CCSM3 with and without the heat flux adjustment. The flux-adjusted hindcasts show slightly higher predictive skill than the unadjusted hindcasts with January initial conditions at lead times of 7–9 months and July initial conditions at lead times of 9–11 months. However, their differences during these months are not statistically significant.