Sensitivity of the stability of river flow regimes to small fluctuations in temperature

Abstract

Abstract A river regime describes the average seasonal behaviour of flow. This seasonal pattern reflects climatic and physiographic conditions in the basin. An inherent characteristic of a flow regime is its stability, i.e. regularity or irregularity of the seasonal pattern. A temperature rise, as predicted by climatic models, might cause changes in the patterns and stability of river flow regimes. Sensitivity of the stability of flow regimes to small fluctuations in temperature (= ± 1°C) is investigated with the help of historical temperature and flow series for Scandinavia. The concept of entropy is utilized for quantification of the stability of the flow regimes conditioned on temperature which also allows forecasting of possible changes in this stability due to changes in temperature. The study shows that the stability of flow regime types with rain or mixed rain and snowmelt sources of flow formation is already sensitive to small changes in temperature, especially concerning flow minima.