Sensitivity of the Red River Basin Flood Protection System to Climate Variability and Change

Abstract

An original modeling framework for assessment of climate variation and change impacts on the performance of complex flood protection system has been implemented in the evaluation of the impact of climate variability and change on the reliability, vulnerability and resiliency of the Red River Basin flood protection system (Manitoba, Canada). The modeling framework allows for an evaluation of different climate change scenarios generated by the global climate models. Temperature and precipitation are used as the main factors affecting flood flow generation. System dynamics modeling approach proved to be of great value in the development of system performance assessment model. The most important impact of climate variability and change on hydrologic processes is reflected in the change of flood patterns: flood starting time, peak value and timing. The results show increase in the annual precipitation and the annual streamflow volume in the Red River basin under the future climate change scenarios. Most of the floods generated using three different climate models had an earlier starting time and peak time. The assessment of the performance of Red River flood protection system is based on the flood flows, the capacity of flood control structures and failure flow levels at different locations in the basin. In the Assiniboine River Basin, higher reliabilities at downstream locations are obtained indicating that Shellmouth reservoir plays an important role in reducing downstream flooding. However, a different trend was identified in the Red River Basin. The study results show that flood protection capacity of the Red River infrastructure is sufficient under low reliability criteria but may not be sufficient under high reliability criteria.