Abstract
The impact of climate warming on the seasonal variability of the Humboldt Current system ocean dynam- ics is investigated. The IPSL-CM4 large scale ocean cir- culation resulting from two contrasted climate scenarios, the so-called Preindustrial and quadrupling CO2, are downscaled using an eddy-resolving regional ocean circu- lation model. The intense surface heating by the atmo- sphere in the quadrupling CO2 scenario leads to a strong increase of the surface density stratification, a thinner coastal jet, an enhanced Peru-Chile undercurrent, and an intensification of nearshore turbulence. Upwelling rates respond quasi-linearly to the change in wind stress asso- ciated with anthropogenic forcing, and show a moderate decrease in summer off Peru and a strong increase off Chile. Results from sensitivity experiments show that a 50% wind stress increase does not compensate for the surface warming resulting from heat flux forcing and that the associated mesoscale turbulence increase is a robust feature.
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