SENSITIVITY OF THE AZERBAIJANI MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY TO VOLATILITY OF THE EXCHANGE RATE(CASE OF 2015 YEAR DEPRECIATION)

Abstract

The goal of this article is to investigate the causes of the inadequate reaction of the manufacturing industry of Azerbaijan to the devaluation of the national currency using the dairy industry as an example. To this end, hypotheses are put forward on the dependence on imports, weak production capacities and export experience, and research is being conducted in this direction. Research methods and methodology. The study was based on the well-known studies of modern economists in the field of modeling open economies. In During the study, the author used the method of statistical analysis, the method of comparative analysis and the hypothesis method. The economic and mathematical tools of the work included methods of conditional optimization, analysis of differential equations, as well as econometric and statistical methods: regression analysis, the study of stationarity and cointegration of time series, vector autoregression. The scientific novelty of this article is the conclusions made by tracking down the fluctuations of the national currency associated with the economic crisis of 2015, when there was a sharp decline in production in the manufacturing industry, the causes of the devaluation of the national currency were determined. It is noted that after two sharp devaluations of the Azerbaijani manat in 2015, the country showed signs of an economic crisis, which in some segments, instead of increasing, there was a decrease in production and export. This indicates the presence of problems in the field of foreign exchange risk management in the country's manufacturing enterprises. In conclusion, the author, summarizing his research, notes that an analysis of the production, consumption, import and export of a number of processed products in the period after the devaluation of the national currency in Azerbaijan allows us to draw the following conclusions: Despite a twofold increase in the equivalent of import prices in manats, there was a significant increase in imports of some goods, and this is due to the following two reasons: 1. Some imported products are important raw materials for the manufacturing industry (for example, milk powder), and their production in Azerbaijan was not organized. 2. The import of certain products has been increased in order to replace other more expensive products (for example, vegetable oils have replaced oil).