Sensitivity of Source Apportionment of Ambient PM2.5-Bound Elements to Input Concentration Data

Abstract

This study investigated the sensitivity of the positive matrix factorization (PMF) model using concentrations of PM2.5-bound elements in Windsor, Ontario, Canada. Five scenarios were devised to assess impacts of input data on source identification, source contributions, and model performance. The study found that the model outcomes and performance were not sensitive to data below method detection limits (MDLs) being replaced with ½ MDLs, nor whether brown carbons (BrCs) data were excluded. By analyzing two episodic events individually, unique factors of fireworks and mineral dust were identified for each of the two episodes. Moreover, PMF model performance was improved greatly for event markers of the episodes and elements with less variability in concentration when compared with the base case scenario. Excluding the two episodes from the entire dataset had little impact on factor identification and source contributions but improved the model performance for three out of twelve elements unique to the two episodes. Overall, the PMF model outcomes and performance were sensitive to percentages of concentrations below MDLs and element concentrations with large variability due to high concentrations observed in episodes. Our findings are useful for dealing with data below MDLs and episodic events in conducting future PMF source apportionment of PM2.5-bound elements.