Sensitivity of Soil Water in Community Atmosphere Model (CAM3) for Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM)

Abstract

The study has been attempted to investigate the relationship between the soil-water and the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall through the simulation of a global climate model named Community Atmosphere Model (CAM3). Two sets of simulation have been done during monsoon season for the years 2009 to 2012 using the pre-monsoon (May) and the previous winter season (December of previous year) state of soil-water as the model initial conditions. The control simulation and four sensitivity cases assuming 25% and 50% dryer and wetter soil-water respectively have been considered for all the aforesaid four years and for both the set of experiments. It has been observed that the impact of upper level soil-water persist for 15 to 20 days of simulation during the summer monsoon; the middle and lower layer soil state persist for a longer period of time due to its slow-varying nature with time. The daily surface temperature shows strong coupling with the upper layer of soil-water. When taken into comparison with the wet soil conditions, the dry soil state in most of the circumstances causes less rainfall. The Pearson correlation coefficient (PCC) and partial correlation technique have been implied to demonstrate the relationship between the daily soil-water columns, subsequent 30-days accumulated rainfall and past 21-days accumulated rainfall. Strong negative correlation has been reported between the soil-water and subsequent 30-days accumulated (All-India Rainfall) AIR for different simulation cases with dry soil conditions; however, the relation weakened and turned positive over some parts of the region for the simulations with wet soil conditions.