Sensitivity of small river channels in the North Carolina Piedmont to change in streamflow conditions, Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation, and land use/land cover change

Abstract

Twenty-four years (1999–2022) of channel change is assessed using specific-gage analysis based on the United States Geological Survey (USGS) rating curve calibration data from thirteen sites (drainage area < 500 km2) to understand the sensitivity of discharge-specific stage (DSS) or its inverse, stage-specific channel capacity (SSCC) to streamflow regimes, hydroclimatological history, and land use in small Piedmont watersheds of North Carolina, USA. We compare observed channel changes to common streamflow and flood metrics, Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation Index (AMOI), and land use/land cover data using regression and correlation techniques to suggest drivers of change and infer sensitivity. In addition to interannual variability, our results at most sites reveal three coherent periods of DSS/SSCC variation at the sub-decadal scale as well as multidecadal trend variation. The magnitudes and frequencies of these changes indicative of potential sensitivity vary substantially amongst sites. The trendlines from the DSS plots for the full length of record indicate that six sites showed increased specific stage while the remaining seven sites showed either reduced or a near-zero change in specific stage. Coefficients of determination relating specific stage and the index of AMO are low (R2 = 0.14—0.38) with both positive and negative relationships exhibited. Multiple regression, coefficients of determination relating specific stage and average monthly discharge are more variable, ranging from 0.18 to 0.94. Both positive and negative correlations (r ≤ 0.7) are found between specific stage and basin land use/land cover intensity indices, although few are significant at 95 % confidence interval. Both qualitative observations and correlation analyses support inferences that drought and persistent low mean discharge conditions tend to increase discharge-specific stage values (decreasing SSCC), by aggradation of the bed and/or lower banks. At our sites, this may be responsible for a sub-decadal trend of increasing specific stage between roughly 2013 and 2018, followed by ongoing reductions over the subsequent period.